London, Singapore, Stockholm and a few other cities around the world battle heavy traffic with a “congestion charge,” a stiff fee for driving in crowded areas at peak hours. But drivers generally hate the idea, and efforts to impose it in this country have failed.
Balaji Prabhakar, a professor of computer science at Stanford University, thinks he has a better way.
A few years ago, trapped in an unending traffic jam in Bangalore, India,
he reflected that there was more than one way to get drivers to change
their behavior. Congestion charges are sticks; why not try a carrot?
So this spring, with a $3 million research grant from the federal
Department of Transportation, Stanford deployed a new system designed by
Dr. Prabhakar’s group. Called Capri, for Congestion and Parking Relief Incentives,
it allows people driving to the notoriously traffic-clogged campus to
enter a daily lottery, with a chance to win up to an extra $50 in their
paycheck, just by shifting their commute to off-peak times.
The program has proved so popular that it is to be expanded soon to also cover parking.
Amaya Odiaga, the director of business operations for Stanford’s
physical education department, now drives to campus a few minutes
earlier and says she has won just $15. But a co-worker got $50 —
creating a competitive atmosphere that makes the program fun, Ms. Odiaga
said.
Better yet, Ms. Odiaga’s commute now takes as little as 7 minutes, down from 25 minutes at peak hours.
Dr. Prabhakar is a specialist in designing computer networks and has conducted a variety of experiments
in using incentives to get people to change their behavior in driving,
taking public transit, parking and even adopting a more active
lifestyle. Unlike congestion pricing,
which is mandatory for everyone and usually requires legislation,
“incentives can be started incrementally and are voluntary,” he said.
Moreover, systems based on incentives can offer a huge advantage in
simplicity. Until recently, the Stanford system required sensors around
campus to detect signals from radio-frequency identification tags that
participants carried in their cars. But the need for such an
infrastructure has vanished now that so many drivers carry smartphones
with GPS chips or other locaters.
Administrators can use the network to set up a centralized Web-based
service to manage any number of incentive campaigns.
“Through smartphones we’re getting more at ease about fine-grained information about space and time,” said Frank Kelly,
a mathematician at the University of Cambridge in England who
specializes in traffic networks. “This is possible because information
and communications systems are becoming cheaper and cheaper.”
Samuel I. Schwartz,
a transportation consultant and former New York City traffic
commissioner, says a smartphone-based system is inevitable, though he
predicts it will be used for congestion pricing as well as incentives.
“Ultimately we will be charged, or money will be added to our accounts,
by using the cloud infrastructure,” he said. “It’s so precise that you
will be able to charge people for how much of Fifth Avenue they use and
for how long a period. In Christmas season you may decide to charge them
$10 to use Fifth Avenue for each block.”
In New York City, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg’s plan for congestion pricing died in 2008 for lack of support from the state Legislature. Pravin Varaiya,
an expert on transportation systems at the University of California,
Berkeley, said enforcement costs would have been “huge,” adding that
“carrots, as opposed to sticks, frequently work very well.”
Still, Charles Komanoff,
a transportation expert who has designed a computer model of New York
traffic, said he had reservations about such a system as an alternative
to congestion pricing.
“The incentives will be far too small,” he wrote in an e-mail, adding:
“You really do need big disincentives (big sticks). Little carrots won’t
do the job of changing drivers’ decisions” in New York or in San
Francisco.
Dr. Prabhakar said congestion pricing and his incentive system need not
be mutually exclusive, and he noted that highway congestion was an
example of “nonlinear” behavior, in which even a small reduction in
vehicles at a given time — 10 percent or less — can have a big effect on
traffic flow.
And conversely, added Dr. Kelly, the mathematician, “when the system is
close to critical levels, very small increases in traffic can create
time delays for everyone.”
Dr. Prabhakar’s experiments have offered different kinds of incentives,
from airline-style reward points to lottery cash prizes. Now his system
is poised to reach a much larger audience.
Singapore is considering a system he and his students designed that
offers lottery participation or a fare discount to public transit riders
who travel at off-peak times. A trial run begun in January lowered
rush-hour ridership by more than 10 percent. (Given a choice between
discounts and lottery, riders overwhelmingly chose the lottery.)
Bill Reinert, an advanced technology manager at Toyota, says incentives
are no panacea. “Incentives the government gives you” to buy hybrid
vehicles “are a good way not to establish markets,” he said. But he
added: “Do incentives work? Yes. I fly 300,000 miles a year on United.”
The Stanford experiment adds a social network component to the lottery,
in effect making it a game where friends can observe one another’s
“good” behavior. The researchers say this tends to reinforce changes in
behavior and individual commitment. Next fall, the university plans to
expand the system to encourage people to park farther from the busiest
parking structures.
The idea of using incentives to change social and personal behavior has grown increasingly popular. In their 2008 book “Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth and Happiness,”
the economist Richard H. Thaler and the legal scholar Cass R. Sunstein
argued that organizational structures could be created that guide people
toward better behavior.
Dr. Thaler noted that variable tolls, like those used on the Hudson
River crossings in New York at different times of day, “are clearly an
attempt to shift people’s incentives.” Of traffic systems like
Stanford’s, he said, “this is just as efficient.”
Dr. Prabhakar’s first experiment was in Bangalore in 2008, when he
created a system to encourage employees at the software company Infosys
to choose different travel times to its suburban campus. The system
significantly lowered congestion.
More recently, he worked with Accenture, a business services company, to
set up a system that used pedometers to measure the number of footsteps
more than 3,000 employees took each day, encouraging them to walk more
for better health. The campaign, called “Steptacular,”
included a social network component and a Web-based game to add a
random element to the incentives; it handed out $238,000 in rewards.
Dr. Prabhakar said the power of his method was that only a small change could have a drastic effect.
“This is one of the nicer problems,” he said. “You don’t have to change
everyone’s behavior; in fact, it’s better if you don’t.”
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