How Many Films Will Make More Than $400 Million At The Box Office This Year?

Last week, Vulture ran a story saying a $400 million domestic gross is the new threshold for blockbusters.

To put this in perspective, the only movie to reach that number before "Star Wars:  Episode I - The Phantom Menace" came out in 1999 was "Titanic."

Since then, films like "Spider-Man" and "Shrek 2" hit the mark, and re-releases allowed others like "The Lion King" and "E.T." to reach the milestone as well.

In 2009, two movies passed $400 million, with "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" barely crossing and "Avatar" flying past as if it were nothing. 

Now, if one takes inflation into account, a lot of these trends seem meaningless. And 3D ticket and IMAX prices also play a role. But we're box office nerds, and we're sticking with the hard numbers. 

The box office climate is changing. With more emphasis placed on international grosses every year, domestic numbers may not seem as important. But 2012 is on the verge of setting a record that just a decade ago was unfathomable: Three $400 million domestic films in a single year… and possibly more. 

"Hunger Games" finally made it over the threshold this weekend, and "The Avengers" is long past that number.

"The Dark Knight Rises" will easily pass $400 million, the question is by how much. Additionally, Spider-Man's return to the screen after half a decade, and Peter Jackson's "Unexpected Journey" back to Middle Earth have a fighting chance. Let's take a closer look at our three contenders.

The Amazing Spider-Man (July 3) 

Of these three, "Spider-Man" has the toughest road ahead of it. Sandwiched between "The Avengers" and "Dark Knight," the web-slinger may get lost in the shuffle. Even if it does break out, it has less than three weeks before "Dark Knight" opens and takes its entire demographic. 

A breakout seems unlikely with its July 3 release date, a Tuesday. Clearly not making a play to match its own opening weekends (a game it would likely fail), Spidey is instead going for a strategy implemented successfully in the past by "Transformers," hoping for numbers close to or above $20 million for the first six days (and then the following second weekend). This is a good play to ensure the film wills its way to $300 million, and squeezes everything it can out of its pre-"Dark Knight" days, but it won't be nearly enough to hit the $400 million Spidey reached over a decade ago. Tracking has it heading for a $125 million six-day opening, but with numbers this big, reviews can sway that tally by tens of millions in either direction. 

A lot has changed since "Spider-Man" was the premier superhero franchise (Cough. Christopher Nolan. Cough.), and anything less than stellar reviews could spell disaster (any gross less than $250 million) for this big-budget reboot and hopeful franchise-starter. But "Spider-Man" shocked the world before, and that's enough to keep it in the conversation.

Original source